This study looks at some recent examples where materials shortages have had an adverse impact on weapons acquisition programs in terms of cost escalation and schedule slips. It seeks to derive from these experiences the factors that have contributed to these materials shortages. The study then develops the framework for a materials shortages risk assessment. Of the factors identified, the disruption of the supply of raw materials is chosen for a more detailed examination and the scenarios of cartels, mineral exhaustion, and international competition are discussed. Cartels to restrict supply of non-fuel minerals were found to be unlikely, except in the possible instance of chromium. Total resource exhaustion through the remainder of the century is also unlikely. Depletion of the economically recoverable ores, accelerated in part by increased world industrialization and hence competition, will cause rapidly rising prices in all of the basic metals. The recommendations are designed to address both the near-term, and the long-term aspects of the problem. In the near-term, form a DoD-level action group to collect, correlate, and disseminate information related to materials shortages. In the intermediate time frame, seek legislation to set up a mechanism for economic stockpiling of selected critical materials that might be subjected to supply disruption for political or economic reasons (cartels). The longer term solution is to accelerate the development of a few well-focused materials substitution programs-in particular the use of advanced composites for aircraft. The results of implementing these recinmendations would be to assure the amelioration of the effects of any subsequent materials shortages, as in 1973-1974.

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